MGCOLBY's Picker Thread 2024
- Thread starter mgcolby
- Start date
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Divisonal Round
Once again noting these writeups are from the model's perspective and some of the reasoning behind its predictions. These do not necessarily reflect my personal opinion of how these games will go.Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos
Buffalo travels to Mile High as 1.5-point underdogs in what shapes up as a coin flip on paper. The Bills have been defensively stout lately, allowing just 16.3 points per game (4th) while holding opponents to 4.4 yards per play (5th). Denver counters with their own solid defense at 19 points allowed (10th) and 4.3 yards per play (4th). With two quality defenses ready to make life difficult, this has the feel of a grind-it-out playoff affair.
The matchups create some interesting wrinkles. Buffalo's passing attack at 6.5 yards per attempt runs into Denver's elite pass defense allowing just 4.2 yards per attempt (3rd) - that's a strength vs strength battle the Broncos could win. On the flip side, Denver's 16th-ranked passing game at 6.3 yards per attempt faces Buffalo's 3rd-ranked pass defense - another tough sledding matchup. The ground game might be the release valve, though neither team's rushing attack or run defense stands out enough to claim a real edge here statistically, another strength on strength.
The model projects Buffalo squeaking out a 24-23 type game - an outright road win as slight underdogs. At nearly a pick'em, this comes down to whether Buffalo can steal one on the road at altitude. The lean is toward the Bills getting the 1.5 points in a game that feels destined to come down to the final possession.
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San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco travels to Seattle as 7.5-point road underdogs - a big number to be getting in a divisional matchup. The 49ers bring a potent offense averaging 29 points per game (4th) with 6.1 yards per play (4th), but their defense has been leaky at 24.3 allowed (20th). Seattle's story is the opposite: their offense has been modest at 23.8 points (13th), but their defense has been absolutely suffocating - 9.5 points allowed (1st) and 3.7 yards per play (1st) over the last month.
The key matchup is San Francisco's offense against Seattle's elite defense. The 49ers' 3rd-ranked passing attack at 7.5 yards per attempt collides with Seattle's 2nd-ranked pass defense allowing just 3.7 yards per attempt - something has to give, and that battle likely decides the game. San Francisco's run game at 4.5 yards per carry (10th) faces Seattle's 8th-ranked run defense - no easy yards there either. Going the other way, Seattle's modest offense should find room against San Francisco's 19th-ranked pass defense, which could keep the Seahawks comfortable.
The model projects San Francisco winning outright around 30-25 as 7.5-point underdogs - a significant upset call. The lean is toward the 49ers pulling the road upset, with their offensive firepower enough to overcome Seattle's elite defense. Getting 7.5 points with a team projected to win outright is a strong spot.
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Houston Texans @ YOUR New England Patriots
New England hosts Houston as 3-point favorites with a chance of snow in the forecast - 26 degrees with a 32% precipitation probability. Houston trades their climate-controlled home for potential January weather in Foxborough. The Patriots have been the hottest team in football lately, ranking 2nd in points scored at 31 per game while allowing just 11.8 (2nd). Their 6.9 yards per play (1st) and 8.8 yards per pass attempt (1st) are elite numbers heading into the divisional round.
The matchups favor New England. The Patriots' league-leading passing attack at 8.8 yards per attempt has an edge against Houston's 11th-ranked pass defense allowing 5.6 yards per attempt - not a mismatch, but New England should find room to operate. Houston's offense faces a tougher road: their 22nd-ranked rushing game at 4.1 yards per carry doesn't inspire confidence, and their passing game at 6.9 yards per attempt meets a Patriots pass defense ranked 6th at 4.7 allowed. Houston's 5th-ranked run defense is their best unit, but New England can simply throw over the top.
The model projects a comfortable Patriots win around 34-23, covering the 3-point spread with room to spare. New England's offensive firepower combined with their home field and weather advantage against a dome team tips this one decisively toward the home favorite.
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LA Rams @ Chicago Bears
The Rams leave the comfy confines of SoFi for a frigid Soldier Field - 15-degree temps with snow flurries and 15 mph winds. LA enters as 4-point favorites carrying the league's hottest offense at 34 points per game, but their defense has been porous at 28 allowed (25th) while giving up 6.0 yards per play (29th). Chicago's offense has been rolling too at 29 points per game (4th), setting up what could be a shootout if the weather cooperates.
The brutal conditions at Soldier Field were supposed to be Chicago's edge, but LA's 3rd-ranked rushing attack at 5.0 yards per carry against Chicago's porous 22nd-ranked run defense could flip that script. If the Rams can pound the rock, the weather becomes their friend. Flip it around and Chicago's passing game at 7.1 yards per attempt (5th) gets to attack LA's struggling 21st-ranked pass defense - but will the Bears be able to air it out in the snow?
The model projects a nail-biter with LA edging it around 29-27, but that margin falls inside Chicago's 4 points. The lean is toward the Bears covering at home, though LA's ground game advantage in these conditions makes this closer than the home field narrative suggests.
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Rolling out the NBA picker this week and it should be game on. Plans are to have a golf, tennis, nascar, hockey and baseball picker. Will most likely do the easy flip for WNBA & NCAAW. I thought I would have the NCAA Football picker ready. But that turned out to be a pipedream. But I will have it ready for next season. Probably going to have a USFL or whatever its being called now for spring. Then spend the summer on NCAA and adding player stats/props for the various leagues. Got some dashboards now as well, can track picks and a parlay builder etc... its coming along, I'm pleased with where I am at.
Lord Chevy
I'm home
You are truly the man. I hope you're making some scratch off of all this work.
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Not yet. Tis the goal.
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Championship Sunday
New England vs Denver Broncos
The #2 seed Patriots (16-3) travel to face the #1 seed Broncos (15-3) in a matchup of AFC powerhouses meeting for the first time this season. New England dismantled Houston 28-16 in the divisional round, extending their dominance to 5 straight wins and 15 of their last 16. Denver survived a scare from Buffalo, pulling out a 33-30 thriller - but lost starting QB Bo Nix to a broken ankle in the process. Backup Jarrett Stidham gets the start with a Super Bowl berth on the line, which explains the unusually large road favorite line.
The model - which doesn't factor injuries - still likes New England here based on the numbers. Their 1st-ranked passing attack (8.0 YPA) goes against Denver's 3rd-ranked pass defense (4.2 YPA allowed) - that's the game's marquee collision. On the ground, NE's 4th-ranked rushing game (4.9 YPC) has an edge against Denver's vulnerable 24th-ranked run defense (4.6 YPC allowed). Flip it around: Denver's 16th-ranked passing attack meets NE's 6th-ranked pass defense, while their 17th-ranked ground game faces NE's improved run defense. The Patriots have cleaner matchup advantages on both sides of the ball.
Mile High in January is a factor - 19°F at kickoff with Denver's altitude advantage. But asking Stidham to outduel New England's offense in a conference championship is a tall order. The model projects the Patriots winning 34-23. The Nix injury only adds to the case. Pick: NE -5, Over 41.5
LA Rams vs Seattle Seahawks
The rubber match. LA (14-5) and Seattle (15-3) split their regular season series - the Rams won 21-19 at SoFi in Week 11, the Seahawks answered with a 38-37 thriller at Lumen Field in Week 16. Now they meet for the third time with a Super Bowl berth on the line. Seattle demolished San Francisco 41-6 in the divisional round; LA gutted out a 20-17 road win in brutal conditions at Chicago.
Seattle's defense has been lights out recently - allowing just 6, 3, and 10 points in their last three games against SF (twice) and Carolina. The exception? LA hung 37 on them at Lumen Field in Week 16. The Rams have already proven they can score here. LA's 3rd-ranked rushing attack (5.0 YPC) should keep them competitive against Seattle's 26th-ranked run defense, and they should be able to establish the ground game despite being a dome team facing 38°F temperatures with potential snow.
Seattle's home-field advantage looms large and they did win that Week 16 meeting, but it took 38 points to do it. The model sees Seattle winning a tight one 29-26, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. With both offenses capable of scoring, expect points. Pick: SEA -2.5, Over 47.5
