MGCOLBY's Picker Thread 2024
- Thread starter mgcolby
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mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
I tried to get this posted before kickoff but didn’t quite make it. I want to be clear up front that there are no changes to any predictions, lines, or picks from the weekly slate I posted on Tuesday. This post is strictly informational.
So why am I reposting Week 16 picks, something regulars here know I rarely do? I finally got around to testing my confidence rating system, and I wanted to share the results.
Below is the season record heading into Week 16, broken down by confidence level.
Based on those results, I’ve added a confidence rating column to the picker and introduced two new visual alerts. You’ll notice I haven’t highlighted Shamlock’s Pick of the Week yet. I usually prefer to wait closer to kickoff so I can factor in as much late information as possible. That said, I selected it earlier than usual this week so all three alerts would be visible. Shamlock’s Pick of the Week is marked with a green shamrock. It does not distinguish between ATS or totals in this view, it's shown in the weekly view I post.
The two new alerts are represented by pots of gold. One is a full pot of gold for five-star plays, and the other is a spilled pot of gold for one-star plays.
As you can see in the chart, five-star picks are hitting at 84.6 percent while accounting for just under 10 percent of all games since Week 5, specifically 9.3 percent. The pot of gold is simply a quick, quirky visual to flag those high-confidence spots. Digging a little deeper, the model is 5-0 when both the model and Vegas are within one to two points of each other and agree on the favorite. It is 6-2-2 when the predictions still fall within that one to two point range but disagree on who the favorite is.
On the other end of the spectrum are the one-star ratings, which I’m labeling the fade zone. The spilled pot of gold signals games that are worth considering as fades. As part of my personal approach, I try to be as honest and transparent as possible without giving away the recipe. If the data suggests fading the picker in certain spots, it only makes sense to acknowledge that. If I were to reclassify these one-star picks as fades, it would add five wins to the ATS season total, pushing it to 61 percent on the year. That’s nothing to scoff at.
So, welcome to the new fade zone picks.
I will note that I have not added a totals confidence. One not sure its 48% win rate warrants one and honestly I haven't narrowed down a pattern that structurally works i.e. more stars equals higher win percentage.
So why am I reposting Week 16 picks, something regulars here know I rarely do? I finally got around to testing my confidence rating system, and I wanted to share the results.
Below is the season record heading into Week 16, broken down by confidence level.
Based on those results, I’ve added a confidence rating column to the picker and introduced two new visual alerts. You’ll notice I haven’t highlighted Shamlock’s Pick of the Week yet. I usually prefer to wait closer to kickoff so I can factor in as much late information as possible. That said, I selected it earlier than usual this week so all three alerts would be visible. Shamlock’s Pick of the Week is marked with a green shamrock. It does not distinguish between ATS or totals in this view, it's shown in the weekly view I post.
The two new alerts are represented by pots of gold. One is a full pot of gold for five-star plays, and the other is a spilled pot of gold for one-star plays.
As you can see in the chart, five-star picks are hitting at 84.6 percent while accounting for just under 10 percent of all games since Week 5, specifically 9.3 percent. The pot of gold is simply a quick, quirky visual to flag those high-confidence spots. Digging a little deeper, the model is 5-0 when both the model and Vegas are within one to two points of each other and agree on the favorite. It is 6-2-2 when the predictions still fall within that one to two point range but disagree on who the favorite is.
On the other end of the spectrum are the one-star ratings, which I’m labeling the fade zone. The spilled pot of gold signals games that are worth considering as fades. As part of my personal approach, I try to be as honest and transparent as possible without giving away the recipe. If the data suggests fading the picker in certain spots, it only makes sense to acknowledge that. If I were to reclassify these one-star picks as fades, it would add five wins to the ATS season total, pushing it to 61 percent on the year. That’s nothing to scoff at.
So, welcome to the new fade zone picks.
I will note that I have not added a totals confidence. One not sure its 48% win rate warrants one and honestly I haven't narrowed down a pattern that structurally works i.e. more stars equals higher win percentage.
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Season Record & Week 16 Results
The picker having a two week slide here ATS, ironically as the totals are starting to come around. Also, a shit week to have its first Shamlock's gold loss when it agrees with Vegas (Jets game), the same week I introduce it. Seems par for the course. Still in the green for the season and overall having a good year ATS. EPR is rock steady, I'll have a comment on that later in the thread.
The picker having a two week slide here ATS, ironically as the totals are starting to come around. Also, a shit week to have its first Shamlock's gold loss when it agrees with Vegas (Jets game), the same week I introduce it. Seems par for the course. Still in the green for the season and overall having a good year ATS. EPR is rock steady, I'll have a comment on that later in the thread.
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
I'm aware and in awe of Miami as you are or will be. I looked at and two things stand out. As you know its based on the last four games, well Miami still has two good games remaining in that window. I expect them to drop significantly with an asterisk next week because the best game in that window will drop off next week. The other part of the scenario, Miami is statistically doing well in the two highest weighted categories of the formula. So yes, I fully expect them to account for an EPR loss this week and they are a bit of statistical/situational anomaly.
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Week 18
For fun I went and used ESPN's playoff time machine. I used the EPR rankings to determine each game. I did not account for teams sitting starters (Chargers being the obvious one), just straight up win/loss based on higher lower ranking.
And just for the likely hood Trey Lance doesn't come out and light up the Broncos to the tune of er one more point than they have when the clock hits zeros:
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Shamlock's Pick of the Week
Realize I have been slacking on the record:
Season record 9-4
Week 5: Detroit: -9.5 (W)
Week 6: Arizona/Indianapolis: Over 46.5 (W)
Week 7: Houston/Seattle: Over 41 (W)
Week 8: Pittsburgh: +3.5 (L)
Week 9: NE: -5.5 (L)
Week 10: Arizona/Seattle: Over 44.5 (W)
Week 11: Seattle/LA Rams: Over 48 (L)
Week 12: Dallas: +3.5 (W)
Week 13: Chicago: +7.5 (W)
Week 14: Washington +2.5 (L)
Week 15: NYJ/Jag Over 41.5 (W)
Week 16: NE/Bal Over 48.5 (W)
Week 17: NYG +1.5 (W)
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Week 18
Carolina @ Tampa Bay:The NFC South title comes down to this - the 8-8 Panthers at the 7-9 Buccaneers with both teams still alive for the division crown. Carolina clinches with a win or tie, while Tampa needs a victory combined with an Atlanta loss. Neither offense has been lighting it up lately - the Panthers average 20.3 points (25th) while the Bucs sit at 21.3 (23rd). This has the makings of a gritty, low-scoring divisional affair.
Carolina's edge is the turnover battle with a plus 0.8 margin, forcing 6 takeaways over the last four games while committing just 3 turnovers. Tampa's red zone efficiency at 72.7% (4th) gives them an edge when they get close, but their defense has allowed 5.64 yards per play (20th). The Panthers' ability to force turnovers could be the difference in a game where neither offense is explosive.
The model projects Tampa winning around 22-19, which is right at the 3-point spread. Carolina getting points with the division on the line makes this feel like a coin flip.
Seattle @ San Francisco:
The NFC West title is on the line as the 13-3 Seahawks visit the 12-4 49ers. Winner clinches the division, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. San Francisco leads the league in scoring at 38.3 points with a 64.2% third-down conversion rate - also best in the NFL. Seattle counters with the league's best defense, allowing just 8.8 points per game and 3.51 yards per play.
The 49ers' offense has been firing on all cylinders - 404 total yards per game with 7.85 yards per pass attempt (4th). Seattle's pass defense leads the league at just 5.45 yards per attempt allowed, setting up a fascinating strength-on-strength matchup. The Seahawks have forced 11 takeaways over the last four games with a plus 1.5 turnover margin (2nd), but San Francisco protects the ball with just 0.8 turnovers per game.
The model projects San Francisco winning around 40-27, which is a much larger margin than the 1.5-point spread suggests. The 49ers' league-leading offense against Seattle's elite defense is appointment viewing, but San Francisco's ability to sustain drives and finish in the red zone (72.7%, 4th) gives them the edge at home with everything on the line.
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Season Record & Week 18 Results
Not a losing week. But week 18 is always a bit rough on the picker. It did make up ground on the totals. Ended up splitting the week 8-8 against the spread a couple of tough games that got away from it but thems the breaks as they say.
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Wild Card Weekend Model Analysis
I will note these writeups are from the model's perspective and some of the reasoning behind its predictions. These do not necessarily reflect my personal opinion of how these games will go. I will give you my picks at the end.LA Rams @ Carolina Panthers
The 12-5 Rams travel to Charlotte as heavy favorites in their Wild Card matchup against the 8-9 Panthers. Rain is expected with a 55% chance of precipitation, which could impact both passing attacks. Los Angeles leads the league in scoring over the last four games at 36.8 points, racking up 452 total yards per contest with the 3rd-best yards per play mark at 6.7. Carolina has been on the other end of the spectrum, averaging just 16 points (28th) with a minus 69 point differential on the season.
The Rams' rushing attack has been elite at 5.7 yards per carry (3rd), and their passing game ranks 4th at 7.6 yards per attempt. Carolina's defense has actually been respectable at 4.9 yards per play allowed (12th), but their offense simply cannot keep up - the Panthers rank 27th in YPP and convert just 34% of third downs (26th). The wet conditions could favor LA's ground game over Carolina's pass-heavy approach.
The model projects the Rams winning around 32-18, covering the 10-point spread comfortably. Carolina's offensive limitations and minus 0.5 turnover margin make it difficult to see them keeping pace with the hottest offense in football. LA should advance with relative ease, rain or shine.
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Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
The NFC North rivals meet in the playoffs with the 11-6 Bears hosting the 9-7-1 Packers on a brisk January evening at Soldier Field. Chicago has been solid at home, averaging 26.5 points (7th) with a plus 1.0 turnover margin (4th) over the last four games. Green Bay has struggled lately at 20.3 points (23rd) while allowing 28 per game (26th) - not exactly playoff-caliber defense.
The Packers' red zone efficiency has cratered to 40% (28th), meaning they're moving the ball but failing to finish drives. Chicago converts 44.6% of third downs (9th) and protects the football with just 0.5 turnovers per game. Green Bay's minus 0.5 turnover margin against a Bears defense forcing 1.5 takeaways per game is a tough matchup for the road team.
The model projects Chicago winning around 29-19, an outright victory as home underdogs getting 1.5 points. The Bears' turnover advantage and Green Bay's red zone struggles should be the difference. This feels like a game where Chicago controls the pace and Green Bay's offensive inconsistency proves costly in January.
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Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Buffalo enters as a slim 1.5-point favorite but faces a Jacksonville squad that has quietly put together some solid recent numbers. The Jaguars are averaging 26.8 points over their last four games while allowing just 18.3 - both figures that would raise eyebrows given their early-season struggles. Buffalo's offense remains potent at 29.5 points per game in that span, but their defense has shown cracks, surrendering 5.5 yards per play.
The trenches could define this one. Buffalo's rushing attack ranks 5th in yards per carry at 5.2, but Jacksonville's run defense has slipped to 18th over the last month after ranking 2nd for the season - a potential exploitation point for the Bills ground game. On the flip side, Jacksonville's passing efficiency at 7.9 yards per attempt gives them paths to move the ball against a Buffalo secondary that has been bendable. The turnover battle looks even with both teams hovering around plus 0.5 margin recently.
The model projects Jacksonville winning at home, something around 34-23. With a spread this tight it's essentially a coin flip in Vegas' eyes, but Jacksonville's recent defensive tightening combined with their offensive rhythm tips the model toward the home side. Buffalo's defensive inconsistencies over the last month create enough doubt to lean Jaguars here.
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San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
A fascinating Wild Card matchup pits the 12-5 49ers against the 11-6 defending champion Eagles in Philadelphia. San Francisco's offense has been humming at 32.5 points per game (4th) with the best third-down conversion rate in the league at 56%. However, they were held to just 3 points by Seattle's top-ranked defense in Week 18 - and now face another elite unit in Philly, who ranks 1st in yards per play allowed at 3.8.
The 49ers' passing attack ranks 4th at 7.6 yards per attempt, averaging 251 yards through the air. Philadelphia's pass defense at 6.4 yards per attempt allowed (5th) sets up another strength-on-strength battle. San Francisco's minus 0.5 turnover margin (21st) is a concern against a Philly defense that forces turnovers and a ball-secure Eagles offense with just 0.5 giveaways per game.
The model projects San Francisco winning around 32-22, an outright road victory as 4.5-point underdogs. The 49ers' offensive firepower against Philly's elite defense is appointment viewing, though the Seattle result raises questions about whether SF can move the ball against top-tier units. San Francisco's third-down efficiency will need to show up against a Philadelphia front that makes every yard difficult.
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LA Chargers @ YOUR New England Patriots
The 14-3 Patriots host the 11-6 Chargers in an AFC Wild Card matchup that looks lopsided on paper. New England leads the league in yards per play at 7.3 and yards per pass attempt at 8.5, racking up 434 total yards per game over the last month. Los Angeles has struggled offensively at 17.3 points (26th) with a dismal 39% red zone efficiency (27th) - they're moving the ball but not finishing drives.
The Patriots' rushing attack has been dominant at 6.2 yards per carry (1st) with 181 yards per game on the ground. The Chargers' defense ranks 3rd against the run at 4.2 yards per carry allowed, setting up a key matchup in the trenches. New England's 75% red zone rate (3rd) compared to LA's 27th-ranked mark is a massive efficiency gap that should show up on the scoreboard.
The model projects New England winning around 38-17, covering the 3.5-point spread comfortably. The Patriots' league-leading efficiency on offense against a Chargers team that cannot finish drives makes this a tough road matchup for LA. New England should roll at home in their first playoff game of the season.
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Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The 12-5 Texans visit the 10-7 Steelers in an AFC Wild Card matchup that should be a defensive battle. Houston leads the league in turnover margin at plus 1.3 (tied with Jacksonville), forcing 7 takeaways over the last four games. Pittsburgh counters with a plus 0.8 margin (6th) and remarkable ball security - just 0.3 turnovers per game, with only 1 giveaway over their last four contests.
The Steelers' ground game has been effective at 5.6 yards per carry (4th) with 149 rushing yards per game. Houston's run defense ranks 6th at 3.8 yards per carry allowed, creating an interesting chess match up front. Pittsburgh's defense allows 6.0 yards per play (26th), which could be exploited by Houston's passing attack averaging 7.2 yards per attempt (7th).
The model projects Houston winning around 23-22, which lines up with the Texans being 3.5-point road favorites. Pittsburgh's ball security and home-field advantage keep this razor thin, but Houston's turnover edge and passing efficiency give them the slight edge. This feels like a game decided in the final minutes.
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I like the following teams to cover:
Panthers +10.5
Bears -1.5
Jacksonville +1.5/ML
49ers +4.5
Patriots -3.5
Steelers +3.5
I like the following to move on to the Divisional round:
Rams
Bears
Jaguars
49ers (really on the fence for this one)
Patriots
Texans
Good luck to all who partake! And let's fucking go....Patriot playoff football is fucking back!!!
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