MGCOLBY's Picker Thread 2024
- Thread starter mgcolby
- Start date
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Not trying to brag lord knows its had some bad weeks. Just so happens its best week in as long as I can remember against the spread happened the same week I got a finalized new view. Also have a new live win probability dashboard I am testing out that seems pretty cool so far. 6-8 on totals so that pissed in the cheerios a bit. Looking for feedback on the delta bars.
Added a screenshot of the live card view. Would like to note at that same moment ESPN live win probability was 95.2 SF and 4.8% Carolina. I have done zero regression or historical testing on the formula. Just more concerned with trying to get it working with some accuracy. That gave me some confidence.
Added a screenshot of the live card view. Would like to note at that same moment ESPN live win probability was 95.2 SF and 4.8% Carolina. I have done zero regression or historical testing on the formula. Just more concerned with trying to get it working with some accuracy. That gave me some confidence.
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as long as its not shamlock
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Had the first EPR Push. The detailed view shows a "-", need to fix it to show "P".
ATS is heading in one direction and the Totals are heading in the opposite. I spent all week thinking the picker went 10-5-1 without realizing New Orleans scored a late TD covering the 5.5. So 9-6-1 it is. Not a bad two week run 21-8-1 ATS. By the week its 7-2 ATS and 3-4-2 for Totals.
ATS is heading in one direction and the Totals are heading in the opposite. I spent all week thinking the picker went 10-5-1 without realizing New Orleans scored a late TD covering the 5.5. So 9-6-1 it is. Not a bad two week run 21-8-1 ATS. By the week its 7-2 ATS and 3-4-2 for Totals.
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Shamlock's POTW Record
Apologies for not updating this recently. Been slacking.Season record 6-3
Week 5: Detroit: -9.5 (W)
Week 6: Arizona/Indianapolis: Over 46.5 (W)
Week 7: Houston/Seattle: Over 41 (W)
Week 8: Pittsburgh: +3.5 (L)
Week 9: NE: -5.5 (L)
Week 10: Arizona/Seattle: Over 44.5 (W)
Week 11: Seattle/LA Rams: Over 48 (L)
Week 12: Dallas: +3.5 (W)
Week 13: Chicago: +7.5 (W)
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Nope its not shamlock's pick.
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Well that POTW was a fecking shellacking! Been dedicating every Sunday (football day in general) to football since I was 13-14 years old. And 32 years later it still amazes me how teams in the NFL can be so polar opposites one week to the next. I did not see a 31-0 beatdown by the Vikings in the cards this week, obviously.
Good news whistling past the totals of course... is the picker is 30-12-1 (71%) over the past three weeks going into tonight's game. Its on a five week winning streak and is 47-24-1 (66%) over that time. Needless to say overall I am happy with the pickers results thus far.
Apologies for not having my normal writeups and interactions. Just been extremely busy.
Good luck to all.
Good news whistling past the totals of course... is the picker is 30-12-1 (71%) over the past three weeks going into tonight's game. Its on a five week winning streak and is 47-24-1 (66%) over that time. Needless to say overall I am happy with the pickers results thus far.
Apologies for not having my normal writeups and interactions. Just been extremely busy.
Good luck to all.
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Week 15
I intended to fix the deltas which is why I delayed posting this. However, been working on other more important things and they will correct themselves over the next two weeks. I didn't like the dense ranking which had the team following a tie use the next number example below is Jax and LAR tied for 2nd, previously NE would show as #3 not #4 and the 32nd rank team would be ranked something other than 32. I didn't like that so I changed it. However the deltas are off because of all the ties I think Washington was originally ranked "26" instead of the true 32nd. Bottom line ignore the deltas (again). With Atlanta stealing the win last night it got the EPR off to a winning start on week 15.
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Season Record & Week 15 Results
All good things must come to an end but with one door closing another one opens. Like the Patriots winning streak the Pickers winning streak also came to an end. Although not as long as the Pats 10 game winning streak equally impressive was the Picker's 5 game win streak ATS. It came crashing down with a 5-10-1 week. On a positive note, the Totals finally broke through with a winning week going 9-7. EPR is still strong coming on as the season starts to really tighten up. ATS is still a healthy twenty-two games up at 57% on the season. The totals bringing up the rear at five games under.
