If Maye continues to develop at this pace in his second season, the Bills will have more to worry about than the Chiefs.
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Drake Maye’s rise looks real, and it could change the AFC’s complexion: Pick Six
Drake Maye and the Patriots are giving the Bills a real challenger in the AFC East for the first time in years. Andy Lyons / Getty Images
By
Mike Sando
Oct. 20, 2025 5:30 am EDT
NFL insiders have
liked New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. They just haven’t loved Maye the way Patriots fans and some media have loved him. Until now.
The gap between public perception and insider reality has closed over the past three weeks. Maye, who broke Tom Brady’s single-game, regular-season franchise record for completion rate in a
31-13 victory over Tennessee on Sunday, has resembled a top-tier QB in ways he had not before.
“For the first time, football people view Maye as possibly being a guy,” an exec from another team said. “He has always looked the part because of his measurables, but the game had not slowed down enough for him to develop that stuff.”
Mike Sando’s 2025 QB Tiers
Drake Maye
Patriots
- Tier3
- Rank#22
- Vote Avg.3.1
◂ WorseBetter ▸
The five-time reigning AFC East champion Buffalo Bills, idle Sunday after dropping from 4-0 to 4-2, now have more to worry about than the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs. The 5-2 Patriots, 23-20 winners at Buffalo in Week 5, are going to get better — much better — if Maye remains on his recent trajectory.
The Pick Six column begins there, with insider takes on what Maye has shown to earn their respect over the past three games, and what it means for New England — and for Buffalo. The full menu:
• Maye, Patriots change dynamics
• Almost paper-bag time for Raiders
• Trading Tua, Trevor or Kyler?
• Rodgers, meet the Betrayal Index
• John Harbaugh’s Super-long drought
• Two-minute drill: Wait, Giants lost?
1. The Bills went 24-6 in the AFC East from Brady’s Patriots exit through 2024. They finally have competition in the division.
Maye’s development and the Patriots’ growth come at an interesting time for the Bills. Buffalo ranks fifth in offensive EPA per play but only 23rd on the defensive side.
“The (Buffalo) defense is good when they have a lead, but they are small, and you can lean on them a little bit that way,” an opposing coach said.
Think Mike Vrabel (listed playing weight: 261) might want to lean on an undersized opponent? Did you see the way the 227-pound Rhamondre Stevenson was running in Tennessee?
To be clear, no one is writing off the Bills.
“Mentally, as much as anything else, it’s hard to stay that hungry, and I see Buffalo as a team that thinks they can flip the switch at some point, because they have been good for a long time,” an exec said. “They have been taking everybody’s best shot for 3-4 years now. It is just hard to stay sharp.”
New England looks hungry. The Patriots and Kansas City are the only teams to rank among the NFL’s top 10 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball this season. Buffalo ranked first on offense and second on defense from 2020-24. Times are changing, although more evidence is needed, as four of New England’s victories were against Miami, Carolina, New Orleans and Tennessee.
“They are a good team,” an opposing exec said of the Patriots. “I do not think they are a great team, but here is what they do not do: beat themselves. That is the nature of that coach (Vrabel). There is a fear factor of accountability.”
Maye’s willingness to take tough and detailed coaching, which he surely is getting from Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, is an X-factor. Among the six first-round quarterbacks from the 2024 class, Denver’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Jayden Daniels appear to be wired similarly. Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr. could fall into that category. Chicago’s Caleb Williams is fighting perceptions he isn’t wired that way, while Minnesota’s J.J. McCarthy must prove he can get on the field and stay there.
Maye leads way among 2024 QB draft class
Yards per attempt, passer rating and EPA per dropback for the seven QBs drafted in 2024 who have started games this season
A table showing the yards per attempt, passer rating and EPA per dropback for seven QBs who were drafted in 2024 and have started a game this season. Drake Maye is comfortably first in all three categories. There isn't much separation between the rest of the group, except for J.J. McCarthy, whose numbers were very poor in only two starts before he was injured.
Table with 4 columns and 7 rows. (column headers with buttons are sortable)
[th width="152.517px"]QB
[/th]
[th]Yds/att
[/th][th]Rating
[/th][th]EPA/DB
[/th]
[th width="152.517px"]
[/th]
[td width="4em"]
8.6
[/td][td width="4em"]
116.4
[/td]
[td width="4em"]+.273
[/td]
[th width="152.517px"]
[/th]
[td width="4em"]
7.3
[/td][td width="4em"]
92.9
[/td][td width="4em"]
+.073
[/td]
[th width="152.517px"]
[/th]
[td width="4em"]
7.1
[/td][td width="4em"]
97.7
[/td][td width="4em"]
+.053
[/td]
[th width="152.517px"]
[/th]
[td width="4em"]
6.1
[/td][td width="4em"]
87.3
[/td][td width="4em"]
+.042
[/td]
[th width="152.517px"]
[/th]
[td width="4em"]
6.2
[/td][td width="4em"]
88.4
[/td][td width="4em"]
−.017
[/td]
[th width="152.517px"]
[/th]
[td width="4em"]
7.2
[/td][td width="4em"]
85.2
[/td][td width="4em"]
−.024
[/td]
[th width="152.517px"]
[/th]
[td width="4em"]
7.3
[/td][td width="4em"]
67.2
[/td]
[td width="4em"]−.520
[/td]
Table: Mike SandoSource: TruMedia
There's little comparison statistically between Maye and the other second-year drafted quarterbacks starting for their teams this season.
Maye ranks third among 34 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per pass play, passer rating and yards per attempt. He ranks second in completion rate (75.2 percent) after completing 21 of 23 Sunday, the highest rate by a Patriots QB (minimum 20 attempts) in a regular-season game.
As one coach who has studied New England put it, Maye has been for the past three weeks what fans and media seemed to think he was all along.
Drake Maye
Patriots
- Tier3
- Rank#22
- Vote Avg.3.1
◂ WorseBetter ▸
"His development is earning a loose leash from Vrabel and Josh," another coach said while monitoring the New England game on TV.
When New England took possession at its 7-yard line Sunday, down 10-3 to Tennessee at the time, Vrabel and McDaniels put the ball in their quarterback's hands. They passed on the first play, gaining 12. They passed on the second play, with Maye taking off for a gain of 19. Maye later hit Mack Hollins for a 22-yard gain, part of a 93-yard touchdown drive.
"That explosive (pass) to Hollins was (Aaron) Rodgers-like," the coach added.
Maye's accuracy on the run, fearlessness in the face of the rush and the way he protects the football have stood out.
"He stands in there, gets his ass kicked and still delivers an accurate ball," the coach said.
A trip to the medical tent for a concussion evaluation Sunday served as another reminder of just how quickly second defenders arrive in the NFL. That is one area where Maye, who missed one game with a concussion in 2024, needs to hone his instincts. He passed the concussion protocol this time, despite banging the back of his helmet on the ground with great force.
It's a long season. New England sits second behind 6-1 Indianapolis atop the AFC right now. Nobody saw that coming, but everything is temporary in the NFL. The 4-3 Chiefs appear increasingly formidable. Buffalo, despite its issues, still has arguably the toughest quarterback to defend in Josh Allen. Joe Burrow could return to Cincinnati.
The Patriots won't play a top team until visiting Tampa Bay in Week 10. If they win that one, look out.
