Mike Vrabel had tempered expectations for the Patriots before the season. After beating the Bills to move to 3-2, the bar has been raised.
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FOXBORO, Mass. — On the day he was introduced as the new head coach of the New England Patriots, Mike Vrabel set what he thought were appropriate expectations.
He said his goal for the Pats in Year 1 was simply to be good enough to take advantage of bad football. It was a reasonable ambition considering what he was inheriting. New England had arguably the worst roster in the NFL. The team had gone 4-13 in back-to-back seasons. Things looked bleak. So the bar was low.
But now, five weeks into Vrabel’s inaugural season, the Patriots (3-2) are coming off their
most impressive win in years. They went to Buffalo and beat the Super Bowl favorites on their home field. They’re above .500 after five weeks for the first time since Tom Brady was still the quarterback.
With one massive win, the outlook has changed. The playoffs don’t just look possible — they’re now probable. According to
The Athletic’s playoff projection model (
compiled by Austin Mock), the Patriots have a 77 percent chance of reaching the postseason and a 26 percent chance of ending the Bills’ five-year reign atop the AFC East. The model projects them to finish with 10 wins and gives them a 6 percent chance of winning the AFC and a 3 percent shot at winning the Super Bowl.
All of that would have seemed asinine mere weeks ago. But Vrabel’s team has reset what seems possible as they now enter the easiest part of the league’s easiest schedule. (According to Mock’s model, the Patriots’ remaining schedule is by far the easiest, with the Browns a distant second). Their next four games are against the Saints (1-4), Titans (1-4), Browns (1-4) and Falcons (2-2).
“We have a job to do,” Vrabel said Wednesday about where the Pats go after an emotional win last week. “It’s the same every week. I think if we are consistent each and every week, I think it allows us to get past some of those things. We’re happy when we won, disappointed when we lost. … We’ll have to make sure that we’re doing everything that we possibly can to prepare to go on and handle another tough environment (in New Orleans).”
The Patriots
haven’t spent much time thinking about how last week’s win could change the outlook three months from now. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t fun to ponder. This is a team that hasn’t been to the postseason since the 2021 season and hasn’t won a playoff game since the Super Bowl against the Rams following the 2018 season.
A lot can change in the NFL, of course, and the usual caveats apply, considering we’re talking about a big-picture outlook five weeks into an 18-week season. But the AFC North is underwhelming with Joe Burrow injured and the Ravens off to a 1-4 start. The AFC South is off to a strong start, but it bears questioning whether the Jaguars (4-1) and Colts (4-1) can maintain this level of play.
All of it feels like the Patriots now have different expectations based on how well the first five games have gone.
“I wouldn’t say a different standard,” Drake Maye said when asked how the win in Buffalo changed things. “It’s just something we’re trying to work toward, building the standard for us as a team, making it hard to beat us at home and making a tough team that we’re bringing on the road. We’re trying to build our identity. I wouldn’t say the standard has changed. We’re just trying to keep building it and keep showing ourselves and people around the league.”
Of course,
Maye is a big reason for the Patriots’ success thus far. Even with a struggling running game that ranks near the bottom of the league statistically, the New England offense ranks 10th in expected points added per play and 16th in success rate.
It’s not a given that the running game will get better, especially after
losing Antonio Gibson to a torn ACL. But if that area can improve, the offense could take another leap.
“Just keep working at it,” Vrabel said when asked how they can improve there. “It’s got to be better. It has to be better at the line of scrimmage, at the second level, and then continue to try to finish to break some of these. And we’ve had some good runs, just not enough of them. Not enough double-digit runs that help your average. We’ve got to stop talking about being one guy away or one block away. I think that was a big theme from last week, and that’ll have to (be fixed).”
It’s also fair to acknowledge how much the Patriots’ easy schedule aids their suddenly realistic playoff goals. The Patriots have 12 games left, and only two of them are against teams with a winning record (at the Buccaneers in Week 10 and a home game against the Bills in Week 15).
The Bills (96 percent) and Colts (83 percent) are the only AFC teams with a better chance of making the playoffs than the Patriots, according to Mock’s projections.
That’s part of why the Patriots’ outlook is so different now.
An improved roster is playing dramatically better against an incredibly easy schedule.
That’s how goals change. On Day 1, Vrabel just wanted the Patriots to be able to take advantage of bad football. Now, after five weeks, the Patriots look like they can set their sights even higher.