NFL GameDay Official GDT: Conference Championship Games.

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Those are pros hammering the Chiefs. Only they move a number that much this early. Bad sign.

Then again, the pros were all over the Ravens.

Pros are right half the time

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Ehhhh…if anything I think Dan Campbell is giving a bad name to analytics and probability theory. I like going for it in 4th down but the worst time to do it is when you’re on the opponent’s 20-30 yard line. You’re risk giving away a likely 3 points. It makes sense inside the 10/15 because if you convert you’re probably getting 7. I also like going for it near the end of games when possession of ball is critical. But this stuff tonight was the worst kind of being recklessly aggressive. He also made an insane call against the Cowboys after getting hosed on that 2 pt conversion, electing to try again from the 7 yard line, instead of taking the tie into OT.


View: https://twitter.com/bykevinclark/status/1751794165757681981

 

[Lord Chevy]

2 Dogs for Championship Weekend
100K each
Chiefs (+150)
Lions (+300)

20K each on these props (riskit for da biscuit!)
Lions - Highest Scoring Team (+500)
Ravens - Lowest Scoring Team (+800)
Either Game goes to OT (+700)
Any Team Scores a Safety (+1000)
Sam LaPorta 80+ Receiving Yards (+500)

If I am reading this right - +300k for the weekend ... Thanks @Lord Dingleberry and @Lord Guts ... At least keeps me close enough to make a final grab for the title

 

[Dingleberry]

Pros are right half the time

The best of the best are right about 56% of the time. Slightly better than a coin flip! Crazy.

 

[Deus Irae]

Ehhhh…if anything I think Dan Campbell is giving a bad name to analytics and probability theory. I like going for it in 4th down but the worst time to do it is when you’re on the opponent’s 20-30 yard line. You’re risk giving away a likely 3 points. It makes sense inside the 10/15 because if you convert you’re probably getting 7. I also like going for it near the end of games when possession of ball is critical. But this stuff tonight was the worst kind of being recklessly aggressive. He also made an insane call against the Cowboys after getting hosed on that 2 pt conversion, electing to try again from the 7 yard line, instead of taking the tie into OT.


View: https://twitter.com/bykevinclark/status/1751794165757681981

Analytics keeps proving to be nearly useless in the face of context when it matters.

 

[Dingleberry]

2 Dogs for Championship Weekend
100K each
Chiefs (+150)
Lions (+300)

20K each on these props (riskit for da biscuit!)
Lions - Highest Scoring Team (+500)
Ravens - Lowest Scoring Team (+800)
Either Game goes to OT (+700)
Any Team Scores a Safety (+1000)
Sam LaPorta 80+ Receiving Yards (+500)

If I am reading this right - +300k for the weekend ... Thanks @Lord Dingleberry and @Lord Guts ... At least keeps me close enough to make a final grab for the title

I hit on my $200k (+200) teaser for a +380k week, LOL. Lost a 20k bet.

I will have a shot this year.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The best of the best are right about 56% of the time. Slightly better than a coin flip! Crazy.

I remember getting really stressed out because some guy called Bettor X bet a lot and picked the Eagles over the Patriots in SB52 and won, and then bet even bigger and picked the Rams over the Patriots in SB53. Every game there’s big money. The “sharp money” came in on the Ravens today btw. The fact is none of them know, BUT I think hitting the Chiefs +3 is a good bet when the odds are released because sharps do suspect the spread is going to change because the public is high on the Chiefs, so if you can get your hands on some of those Chiefs +3 tickets you have an edge.

 

[Dingleberry]

I remember getting really stressed out because some guy called Bettor X bet a lot and picked the Eagles over the Patriots in SB53 and won, and then bet even bigger and picked the Rams over the Patriots in SB54. Every game there’s big money. The “sharp money” came in on the Ravens today btw. The fact is none of them know, BUT I think hitting the Chiefs +3 is a good bet when the odds are released because sharps do suspect the spread is going to change because the public is high on the Chiefs, so if you can get your hands on some of those Chiefs +3 tickets you have an edge.

I was stressed about that too! Remember it well.

Oh no. He knows something!

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I was stressed about that too! Remember it well.

Oh no. He knows something!

The irony is the games rarely go the way the teams, players, coaches, fans, bettors, or anyone sees it playing out in their mental projections.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I’m gonna create a SB pregame thread

 

[Dingleberry]

2 Dogs for Championship Weekend
100K each
Chiefs (+150)
Lions (+300)

20K each on these props (riskit for da biscuit!)
Lions - Highest Scoring Team (+500)
Ravens - Lowest Scoring Team (+800)
Either Game goes to OT (+700)
Any Team Scores a Safety (+1000)
Sam LaPorta 80+ Receiving Yards (+500)

If I am reading this right - +300k for the weekend ... Thanks @Lord Dingleberry and @Lord Guts ... At least keeps me close enough to make a final grab for the title

Did LaPorta go for 80+?

If so, I see a +250k week here at quick glance.

 

[Lord GutsLord Guts's icon]

The irony is the games rarely go the way the teams, players, coaches, fans, bettors, or anyone sees it playing out in their mental projections.

The Chefs will hit 17-24 pts the key is whether the 49ers go past that. The defense from the Chefs is their main strength

 

[PM15]

View: https://twitter.com/Espngreeny/status/1751744506746032335?t=_BKa_lZOPKnApMHF0-ohkQ&s=19


Not just Chiefs fans proclaiming my son as the GOAT. You Patriots fans I feel sorry for you not even a decade later and your run is about to get eclipsed by ours

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

View: https://twitter.com/Espngreeny/status/1751744506746032335?t=_BKa_lZOPKnApMHF0-ohkQ&s=19


Not just Chiefs fans proclaiming my son as the GOAT. You Patriots fans I feel sorry for you not even a decade later and your run is about to get eclipsed by ours

It would be embarrassing to lose to Mr Irrelevant though don’t you think? People would be talking about that for so long.

 

[Dingleberry]

View: https://twitter.com/Espngreeny/status/1751744506746032335?t=_BKa_lZOPKnApMHF0-ohkQ&s=19


Not just Chiefs fans proclaiming my son as the GOAT. You Patriots fans I feel sorry for you not even a decade later and your run is about to get eclipsed by ours

Dude, it's Mike fucking Greenberg.

Jeezus.

 

[Lord GutsLord Guts's icon]

View: https://twitter.com/PatsBuzz/status/1751810379213054054?t=KiDDhEXq2oZT5zEo-4u95Q&s=19

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

View: https://twitter.com/bigcontentguy/status/1751794669929767112

 

[Deus Irae]

Y'all just need to know that this is exactly how Clay is. And he doesn't stop, so get used to it.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Yards Per Attempt Today

Purdy - 8.6
Jackson - 7.4
Goff - 6.7
Mahomes - 6.2*

*Earned GOAT designation

 

[Lord GutsLord Guts's icon]

Y'all just need to know that this is exactly how Clay is. And he doesn't stop, so get used to it.

It is BS how they move the goalposts in the media. TB should be untouchable right now I'd be livid if I were Manning /Montana etc