Patriots vs Chargers - Playoff edition!!!
- Thread starter LordSensei1958
- Start date
After earning the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, the Patriots will host the No. 7 seed, the Los Angeles Chargers, in the Wild Card round on Sunday, January 11 at 8 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium – Maye vs. Herbert in primetime.
As the runner-ups in the AFC West, the Chargers finished the regular season with an 11-6 record, led by head coach Jim Harbaugh and star QB Justin Herbert. Despite losing both their starting offensive tackles for the season, Pro Bowlers Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, Los Angeles overcame significant injuries to make the playoffs. The Chargers come into the playoffs ranked 17th in total DVOA, 19th on offense, and 10th on defense (Patriots are 15th).
We'll have significantly more in-depth analysis on the matchup this week, but here's a brief summary of what the Patriots will face when they play the Chargers on Sunday night.
Starting with the Chargers offense, Herbert is a terrific talent who is widely considered to be one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks. There are some similarities to Patriots QB Drake Maye in Herbert's play style. The Chargers QB has excellent arm talent to attack the entire field, dual-threat ability to scramble and extend plays, and is a big-time playmaker inside and outside the pocket — a significant challenge for the Patriots defense.
Schematically, Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman runs a downhill run scheme mostly out of three-receiver sets featuring standout WR Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, veteran Keenan Allen, and pass-catching TE Oronde Gadsden II, while rookie WR Tre Harris plays some as well. Los Angeles also features two-back groupings with FB Scott Matlock and a jumbo package with six linemen, leaning on first-round RB Omarion Hampton and vet RB Kimani Vidal.
The Chargers have done some creative things to keep Herbert protected and find a run game amidst their offensive line injuries, which is an area the Patriots can exploit. The Chargers rank 32nd in pass-blocking win rate, 31st in run-blocking win rate, and 24th in rush EPA. On film, LA struggles with disguised blitzes and line stunts, and doesn't generate much movement in the run game. With injuries in the front seven, New England's run defense ranks 30th in EPA since Week 12. However, DT Milton Williams, LB Robert Spillane, NT Khyiris Tonga, and OLB Harold Landry III are all hoping to play in the playoffs – a significant boost for the Pats defense.
New England's corners also match up well against LA's receivers, with top NCB Marcus Jones covering McConkey in the slot with possibly extra attention, while CB Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III take the outside receivers. Still, for the Pats defense, this game will be decided in the trenches: can they stop the run and generate pressure? From clean pockets, Herbert can be lethal.
Moving over to the Chargers defense, Chargers DC Jesse Minter is a rising star who came to LA with Harbaugh from the University of Michigan. Los Angeles bases its defense out of four-man fronts, then features pass-rush (load) fronts on third downs. They major in quarters-based schemes, ranking fourth in the NFL with an 80.9% zone coverage rate, with good disguise. According to NextGen Stats, the Chargers schemed pass-rushes generate an unblocked rusher at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (9.2%).
As for their personnel, do-it-all S Derwin James is a playmaking chess piece. James moves around all three levels, but he plays mostly in the box and over the slot to be near the football. James will blitz and fill in run support, while lurking for takeaways in zone coverages. LA also has underrated EDGE Tuli Tuipulotu (70 total pressures), future Hall of Fame pass-rusher Khalil Mack, and CB Donte Jackson, who is having a solid season as their top outside corner.
Although they're an impressive eighth in drop-back EPA allowed, the Chargers majoring in zone coverages could be a good thing. Maye leads all qualified quarterbacks in EPA per drop-back against zone coverage, excelling against the Chargers two most common coverages, quarters and cover-three. In fact, Maye has added his most expected points against cover-three (+72.7) and quarters (+31.7). Still, Minter's scheming will be challenging.
The Patriots have the better regular-season record, but the Chargers will be a tough out. They have an MVP-caliber quarterback, a coach with a winning pedigree in the playoffs, and the seventh-ranked scoring defense in the NFL (20.1 PPG). The clearest path to victory for the Patriots is to continue a great passing season against zone defenses and win the trenches battle against a short-handed Chargers offensive line.
The Patriots will host the Chargers in the Wild Card round at Gillette Stadium on Sunday night at 8 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.
ItsGonnaBeMaye
Well-known member
Chargers are primarily a zone defense. Maye is going to absolutely carve them up, and we now have a balanced offense with an elite run game.
Our defense is 12th in pressure rate, despite missing Milton Williams for a long stretch and rarely blitzing. This front is going to wreak havoc on that atrocious OL, and our corners match up well with their receivers.
This is going to be a beatdown similar to the one we dished out the last time we played the Chargers in the postseason.
Our defense is 12th in pressure rate, despite missing Milton Williams for a long stretch and rarely blitzing. This front is going to wreak havoc on that atrocious OL, and our corners match up well with their receivers.
This is going to be a beatdown similar to the one we dished out the last time we played the Chargers in the postseason.
ItsGonnaBeMaye
Well-known member
Mike Vrabel in the playoffs as a head coach has gone up against Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar x2, and Joe Burrow. His defenses have given up an average of just 19 PPG facing the cream of the crop at QB.
HSanders
Well-known member
HSanders
Well-known member
The New England Patriots finished the 2025 season tied with the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks for the best record in the NFL with a 14-3 record to earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC Playoffs. The 14-3 record is a 10-game difference from the 4-13 finish in 2024. The 10-game improvement tied the 1999 Indianapolis Colts and the 2008 Miami Dolphins for the best turnaround in NFL history. The 1998 Colts were 3-13 and improved to 13-3 in 1999, and the 2007 Dolphins were 1-15 in 2007 and improved to 11-5 in 2008. This week, the Patriots will face the No. 7 seed Los Angeles Chargers at Gillette Stadium on Sunday night, the fifth time the two teams will meet in the postseason. The Patriots are 3-1 in the postseason against the Chargers. The Patriots and Chargers met in the 1963 AFL Championship Game played on Jan. 5, 1964, in San Diego with the Chargers taking a 51-10 decision. The Patriots have won the last three postseason meetings with a 24-21 win in San Diego in the AFC Divisional round on Jan. 20, 2007, a 21-12 win in the AFC Championship game played at Gillette Stadium on Jan. 20, 2008 and a 41-28 win in an AFC Divisional Playoff game on Jan. 13, 2019 at Gillette Stadium.
Photo by David Silverman
New England leads the regular season series by a 24-16-2 margin. The Patriots and Chargers have played in each of the last two seasons at Gillette Stadium with the Chargers claiming both victories, a 6-0 Chargers win on Dec. 3, 2023 and a 40-7 win last season on Dec. 28, 2024.
The New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Chargers are an old AFL rivalry as part of the original eight teams from the American Football League. The series dates back to 1960, the inaugural season for each team
Home Record: 14-10-1
Longest losing streak: 4 games (11/10/68– 11/15/70)
Players
Players
Photo by Eric J. Adler
Photo by David Silverman
SERIES HISTORY
The New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Chargers will meet in the postseason for the fifth time. The Patriots are 3-1 in the postseason against the Chargers. The Patriots and Chargers met in the 1963 AFL Championship Game played on Jan. 5, 1964, in San Diego with the Chargers taking a 51-10 decision. The Patriots have won the last three postseason meetings with a 24-21 win in San Diego in the AFC Divisional round on Jan. 20, 2007, a 21-12 in the AFC Championship game played at Gillette Stadium on Jan. 20, 2008 and a 41-28 win in an AFC Divisional Playoff game on Jan. 13, 2019 at Gillette Stadium.New England leads the regular season series by a 24-16-2 margin. The Patriots and Chargers have played in each of the last two seasons at Gillette Stadium with the Chargers claiming both victories, a 6-0 Chargers win on Dec. 3, 2023 and a 40-7 win last season on Dec. 28, 2024.
The New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Chargers are an old AFL rivalry as part of the original eight teams from the American Football League. The series dates back to 1960, the inaugural season for each team
SERIES BREAKDOWN
Overall Record: 27-17-2Home Record: 14-10-1
- Boston: 2-7-1
- Foxborough: 12-3-0
- Los Angeles: 3-0-0
- San Diego: 10-7-1
Longest losing streak: 4 games (11/10/68– 11/15/70)
QUICK HITS
- The Patriots won 10-straight games against the Chargers from Dec. 2, 1973 through Oct. 14, 2001.
- The first championship game in Patriots franchise history was played at San Diego against the Chargers on Jan. 5, 1964, the AFL Championship game. San Diego defeated the Boston Patriots, 51- 10.
CONNECTIONS
FORMER PATRIOTSPlayers
- WR JaQuae Jackson (2024)
- NT Kyle Peko (2025)
Players
- TE Hunter Henry (2016-20)
- OL Brenden Jaimes (2021-24)
- S Jaylinn Hawkins (2023)
Photo by Eric J. Adler
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
- The New England Patriots have won 33 playoff games since Robert Kraft bought the franchise in 1994. The 33 wins rank third among ownership groups in NFL history and are the most by any team since he entered the NFL.
- Robert Kraft has 33 career postseason wins, which are the third-most in NFL history.
- The Patriots have played in 59 postseason games. This week's game will be their 60th, the fifth-most in NFL history behind Dallas (67), Pittsburgh (65), Green Bay (64) and San Francisco (62).
- Head coach Mike Vrabel is entering the postseason as a head coach for the fourth time and for the third time as a Division Champion after leading New England to an AFC East title. During his six seasons as head coach of the Tennessee Titans, he led his team to three postseason appearances, including two division titles. He is 2-3 in postseason games with a 1-1 record in the Wild Card Round, a 1-1 record in the Divisional Round and an 0-1 record in the AFC Championship Game.
- With a win this week against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round, the Patriots will improve to a 4-1 postseason record against the Chargers.
- The Patriots last appeared in the playoffs at Buffalo (01/15/22) in an AFC Wild Card matchup. Only six players remain on the current roster: DT Christian Barmore, TE Hunter Henry, LB Anfernee Jennings, OL Mike Onwenu, RB Rhamondre Stevenson and LB Jahlani Tavai. Henry started at tight end while Barmore, Onwenu, Stevenson and Tavai played as reserves. Jennings was on injured reserve for the game.
- WR Stefon Diggs has played in 14 postseason games and has 69 receptions (tied for 17th all-time) for 909 yards (24th all-time) and 4 touchdowns. He needs 91 more receiving yards to become the 18th NFL player to reach 1,000 postseason yards. He needs 17 postseason receptions to move past Andre Reed into the top 10 for most postseason receptions in NFL history.
- Diggs has played in the most postseason games among all Patriots players with 14 postseason games. CB Carlton Davis III is second with 9 postseason games.
BROADCAST INFO
TELEVISION: This week's game will be broadcast by NBC and can be seen in the Boston area on NBC 10 Boston. Mike Tirico will handle play-by-play duties with Cris Collinsworth as the color analyst. Melissa Stark will work from the sidelines. The game will be produced by Robert Hyland and directed by Drew Esocoff.
HSanders
Well-known member
Currently, Patriots are favored -3.5 against LAC.
Lines for projected Division matchups are up:
Jax @ NE (-2.5)
Hou @ NE (-1.5)
Pitt @ NE (-5.5)
Lines for projected Division matchups are up:
Jax @ NE (-2.5)
Hou @ NE (-1.5)
Pitt @ NE (-5.5)
ItsGonnaBeMaye
Well-known member
HSanders
Well-known member
